When Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India, speaks to a joint session of the U.S. Congress on June 8, he may find it hard to convince lawmakers of his country’s promise. He shouldn’t: As China, Russia and Brazil slow down, India is barreling ahead. It’s one of the brighter spots among all the emerging markets.
At the beginning of the year, fears were widespread that recession was heading toward the U.S. — and, indeed, the rest of the world. Even the perennially optimistic Wall Street Journal survey of economists put the odds of recession in the coming 12 months at 21 percent, twice the level anticipated a year earlier and the highest reading since 2012. On balance, I believe the pessimism over the economic outlook and in financial markets was overdone early this year — but so too is the more recent euphoria.
China’s size and impact on the global economy mean that China’s problems — I will identify nine of them in this series — are now the world’s problems. No single issue is likely to cause a major crisis, yet in combination they certainly could.
Might be time to short the Euro
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