The Firm was founded in 1978 by A. Gary Shilling. Our approach to analyzing and forecasting economic and financial developments in the U.S. and abroad, and to apply our results to clients’ activities and portfolios we manage is guided by Dr. Shilling’s two long-standing principles:
- Human nature changes very slowly over time, if at all. Therefore, history is relevant because human beings will react to similar circumstances in similar ways. The trick, however, is to find the relevant piece of history on which to draw parallels. In this sense, forecasting is an art, not a science.
- The objective of forecasting is to identify the significant but undiscounted aspects of the outlook. This is where the true opportunities for investors lie and where business can get the jump on competitors. A rehash of the consensus view, which is fully discounted in security markets and business plans, is of limited value.
Our approach is "top down," emphasizing the major themes—developed from our economic, financial and political analysis—that will influence business and financial markets in the short and long runs. The themes are developed carefully, and we normally stick to them as they unfold, avoiding whipsawing our clients—and ourselves—by constant radical changes in our outlook.
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