Our two guiding principles:
- Human nature changes very slowly over time, if at all. Therefore, history is relevant because human beings will react to similar circumstances in similar ways. The trick, however, is to find the relevant piece of history on which to draw parallels. In this sense, forecasting is an art, not a science.
- The objective of forecasting is to identify the significant but undiscounted aspects of the outlook. This is where the true opportunities for investors lie and where business can get the jump on competitors. A rehash of the consensus view, which is fully discounted in security markets and business plans, is of limited value.
The December INSIGHT report has been published; check your junk and spam folders if you haven't received it. The next report will be out in early January.
3/3 Congress has granted Prez wide latitude in for. affairs;Trump can almost unilaterally proceed with growth-slowing protectionist measures
2/3 Fiscal actions are probably in the cards, but Congress by nature is a very conservative institution and slow to enact radical changes.