Dr. Shilling is the President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc.
He received his bachelor’s degree in physics, magna cum laude, from Amherst College, where he was also elected to Phi Beta Kappa and Sigma Xi. Earlier, as a high school senior, he ranked 12th in the nation in the Westinghouse Science Talent Search. Dr. Shilling earned his master’s degree and doctorate in economics at Stanford University. While on the West Coast, he served on the staffs of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and the Bank of America.
Before establishing his own firm in 1978, Dr. Shilling was Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of White, Weld & Co., Inc. Earlier, he set up the Economics Department at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith at age 29, and served as the firm’s first chief economist. Prior to Merrill Lynch, he was with Standard Oil Co. (N.J.) (now Exxon), where he was in charge of U.S. and Canadian economic analysis and forecasting.
Twice ranked as Wall Street's top economist by polls in Institutional Investor, Dr. Shilling was also named the country's No. 1 Commodity Trader Advisor by Futures magazine. The Wall Street Journal has cited him many times for his on-the-mark economic forecasts. In 2003, MoneySense ranked him as the 3rd best stock market forecaster, right behind Warren Buffett. Gary Shilling is also the longest-running columnist at Forbes magazine, where he has been challenging the consensus since 1983, and he is a regular columnist for Bloomberg View. He also appears frequently on Bloomberg radio and television, on CNBC and on various investment webcasts.
Dr. Shilling has published numerous articles on the business outlook and techniques of economic analysis and forecasting, and he serves as Associate Editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association of Business Economics. His first book, Is Inflation Ending? Are You Ready?, was published by McGraw-Hill in early 1983. His fourth book, Deflation: Why it’s coming, whether it’s good or bad, and how it will affect your investments, business and personal affairs, was published in June 1998 and has been translated in China and Korea. In 1999, McGraw-Hill published Deflation: How to survive and thrive in the coming wave of deflation, which was translated for readers in China. In late 2010, John Wiley & Sons published The Age of Deleveraging: Investment strategies for a decade of slow growth and deflation, which spent some time atop the amazoncom best-seller list. He has also contributed to a number of investment and financial books.
Dr. Shilling does not yet manage any mutual funds, but CNBC anchor Bill Griffeth was so impressed with his investment approach that he profiled him along with 19 well-known mutual fund managers in his book, The Mutual Fund Masters (Probus Publishing, 1995).
Dr. Shilling is well known for his forecasting record. In the spring of 1969, he was among the few who correctly saw that a recession would start late in the year. In 1973, he stood almost alone in forecasting that the world was entering a massive inventory-building spree to be followed by the first major worldwide recession since the 1930s. In the late 1970s, when most thought that raging inflation would last forever, he was the first to predict that the changing political mood of the country would lead to an end of severe inflation, as well as to potentially serious financial and economic readjustment problems, and a shift in investment strategy from one favoring tangible assets to an emphasis on stocks and bonds.
The July 5, 1991 edition of The Wall Street Journal stated, "Mr. Shilling was one of the few analysts a year ago to forecast a recession. At that time, he said a recession ‘may already have started,’ a forecast that now looks prophetic."
The January 22, 1993 edition reviewed the track records of interest rate forecasters polled semiannually by the Journal since 1981 and said, "The economist with by far...the best record in picking when to buy long-term bonds: A. Gary Shilling, who heads an economic consulting firm and manages money. During the 1980s, Mr. Shilling...saw sharply lower interest rates ahead. ...investors who bet on his rate forecasts by putting their money in long-term bonds did very well."
The July 7, 1997 edition stated that "Mr. Shilling...had the best overall forecast" of the economy, interest rates, exchange rates and inflation "among the...57 economists polled in the latest survey."
The January 2, 2003 edition, in reviewing the forecasts of its poll taken six month earlier, stated, "In June, only one forecaster...Gary Shilling, expected the Fed to cut short-term interest rates in the second half, as it did in November....Only one forecaster, again Mr. Shilling, expected the Dow Jones Industrial Average to finish the year below 9000. Twenty-seven of the 55 saw it finishing the year above 10,000." (It finished at 8342.)
Dr. Shilling is on the Board of Directors of the American Productivity and Quality Center and the Episcopal Preaching Foundation, Inc., of which he is Chairman; an Advisory Director of Austin Trust Company; and former Chairman of the New Jersey State Revenue Forecasting Advisory Commission. He is a former Director of the American Republic Life Insurance Co. of N.Y., the Henry H. Kessler Foundation, Inc., Aim Packaging and Palm Harbor Homes; a former Chairman and Trustee of the New Jersey Shakespeare Festival; a former director of National Life Insurance Co. (Vermont); a former Trustee of Bates College; and a former Trustee and the Treasurer of the General Theological Seminary (Episcopal). Dr. Shilling was a member of the National Commission on Jobs and Small Business. He also was an informal economic advisor to former President George H. W. Bush and an Executive-in-Residence at the Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, Dartmouth College. He has testified before various Congressional committees, including the Joint Economic Committee and the House Committee on Banking. He is also an avid beekeeper.