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investment themes for 2007. They're still valid in 2008. In early 2007,
Gary Shilling outlined his 12 investment themes for 2007. Eight
of them were likely to unfold in 2007 while four would probably work
but maybe not until later:
1. The housing bubble will burst. If so, 2. The Fed will ease; meanwhile, the yield curve will remain inverted 3. U.S. stock prices will fall, perhaps below the 2002 lows, in the midst of a major recession 4. China will suffer a hard landing due to domestic cooling measures and U.S. recession 5. Weakness in U.S. and China will spread globally, dragging down economies and stocks universally 6. Treasury bonds will rally 7. The dollar will rally, but not before the recession is global 8. Commodity prices will nosedive 9. Maybe global and chronic deflation will commence in 2007. 10. Maybe U.S. consumers will start a long-run saving spree, replacing their 25-year borrowing and spending binge 11. Maybe deflationary expectations will become widespread and robust 12. Speculative areas beyond housing may suffer in 2007 Now, we see that a number of those themes are well under way, and the rest seem likely to follow. And Gary Shilling feels those themes remain valid for 2008. Gary Shilling has often been way ahead of the crowd in forecasting some of the recent significant trends in the economy and stocks. In the late 1990s, he predicted the demise of Internet stocks leading to a U.S. and global recession. He made these forecasts at a time when the U.S. economy was booming and the stock market was soaring. In November 2000, he forecast that the Dow would eventually drop below 8000, the Nasdaq would lose 70% to 80% of its value and the S&P 500 would be cut in half. The 2000-2002 bear market dropped the Dow 35%, the Nasdaq, 78% and the S&P 500, 49%. In early 2005, when many had written off the dollar, Gary Shilling forecast a rally. That year, the greenback gained significantly against most currencies. And, of course, Gary was nearly alone for several years in recognizing the looming meltdown in housing, led by troubled subprime mortgages.
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GARY'S UPCOMING MEDIA APPEARANCES Thurs., June 12: "Kudlow & Co." CNBC 7:00 p.m. ET *****************************************************************************
Since it was founded in 1978, A. GARY SHILLING & CO. has
been providing We provide
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President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., Dr. Shilling is well known for his forecasting record. A poll conducted by Institutional Investor magazine twice ranked him as Wall Street's top economist. Dr. Shilling has been a Forbes columnist since 1983, and his articles have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times , and other well known publications. He appears weekly on CNBC's "Kudlow & Company." |
30-40 page monthly newsletter lets you be privy to Dr. Shilling's analyses and forecasts. *His Investment Recommendations for 2008 *What a U.S. recession will mean for the global economy... *...and stocks, both U.S. and overseas *What about the dollar? U.S. Treasurys? These and other issues were explored in recent issues of INSIGHT , a unique planning tool to help you formulate a successful strategy for your business and your investment portfolio. And when you order a one-year subscription to Insight, you
will receive a free copy of A. Gary Shilling's recent book,
Deflation, in which he forecasts the
demise of the Internet bubble and the resulting bear market in
tech stocks. Gary also examines 14 deflationary forces and
advises investors, businesses and consumers how to thrive in the deflationary
years ahead.
More.
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A. Gary Shilling & Co. manages assets for individual and institutional clients. The firm's investment strategy is based on the themes that are developed by our economic, political, and financial market research. |
A number of leading corporations and institutional investors rely on A. Gary Shilling & Co. for economic consultation. Our typical client has a personal, in-depth relationship with Dr. Shilling at the senior management level and a deep interest in major economic and financial themes that affect its portfolios or business in the long and short runs. Clients have direct access to Dr. Shilling and our staff, and normally receive two to four visits in their offices from him each year. |