While on the West Coast, he served on the staffs of the Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco and the Bank of America.
Before establishing his own firm in 1978, Dr. Shilling was Senior Vice President
and Chief Economist of White, Weld & Co., Inc. Earlier, he set up the Economics Department
at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith at age 29, and served as the firm’s first
chief economist. Prior to Merrill Lynch, he was with Standard Oil Co. (N.J.) (now
Exxon), where he was in charge of U.S. and Canadian economic analysis and forecasting.
A frequent contributor to the financial press, he is a regular columnist for Forbes
magazine and his articles appear in other leading financial publications. He is a
member of The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Japan Economic Journal) Board of Economists.
He appears frequently on radio and television business shows. Recognized as an effective
and dynamic speaker, he often addresses national and international meetings of various
business groups, including the Young Presidents Organization.
Dr. Shilling has published numerous articles on the business outlook and techniques
of economic analysis and forecasting, and he serves as Associate Editor of Business
Economics, the journal of the National Association of Business Economics. His first
book, Is Inflation Ending? Are You Ready?, was published by McGraw-Hill in early
1983. His fourth book, Deflation: Why it’s coming, whether it’s good or bad, and
how it will affect your investments, business and personal affairs, was published
in June 1998 and has been translated in China and Korea. In 1999, McGraw-Hill published
Deflation: How to survive and thrive in the coming wave of deflation, which was translated
for readers in China. In late 2010, John Wiley & Sons published The Age of Deleveraging:
Investment strategies for a decade of slow growth and deflation. He is also the
creator of The Deflation Game, a board game that illustrates and reinforces his long-term
forecast that deflation is a greater threat than a return to high inflation.
Dr. Shilling does not yet manage any mutual funds, but CNBC anchor Bill Griffeth
was so impressed with his investment approach that he profiled him along with 19
well-known mutual fund managers in his book, The Mutual Fund Masters (Probus Publishing,
Dr. Shilling is well known for his forecasting record. In the spring of 1969, he
was among the few who correctly saw that a recession would start late in the year.
In 1973, he stood almost alone in forecasting that the world was entering a massive
inventory-building spree to be followed by the first major worldwide recession since
the 1930s. In the late 1970s, when most thought that raging inflation would last
forever, he was the first to predict that the changing political mood of the country
would lead to an end of severe inflation, as well as to potentially serious financial
and economic readjustment problems, and a shift in investment strategy from one favoring
tangible assets to an emphasis on stocks and bonds.
The July 5, 1991 edition of The Wall Street Journal stated, "Mr. Shilling was one
of the few analysts a year ago to forecast a recession. At that time, he said a recession
‘may already have started,’ a forecast that now looks prophetic."
The January 22, 1993 edition reviewed the track records of interest rate forecasters
polled semiannually by the Journal since 1981 and said, "The economist with by far...the
best record in picking when to buy long-term bonds: A. Gary Shilling, who heads an
economic consulting firm and manages money. During the 1980s, Mr. Shilling...saw
sharply lower interest rates ahead. ...investors who bet on his rate forecasts by
putting their money in long-term bonds did very well."
The July 7, 1997 edition stated that "Mr. Shilling...had the best overall forecast"
of the economy, interest rates, exchange rates and inflation "among the...57 economists
polled in the latest survey."
The January 2, 2003 edition, in reviewing the forecasts of its poll taken six month
earlier, stated, "In June, only one forecaster...Gary Shilling, expected the Fed
to cut short-term interest rates in the second half, as it did in November....Only
one forecaster, again Mr. Shilling, expected the Dow Jones Industrial Average to
finish the year below 9000. Twenty-seven of the 55 saw it finishing the year above
10,000." (It finished at 8342.)
Twice, a poll of financial institutions conducted by Institutional Investor magazine
ranked Dr. Shilling as Wall Street’s top economist. Futures magazine also ranked
him the country’s number one Commodity Trading Advisor. And in 2003, MoneySense
ranked him as the 3rd best stock market forecaster, right behind Warren Buffett.
Dr. Shilling is on the Board of Directors of the American Productivity and Quality
Center and the Episcopal Preaching Foundation, Inc., of which he is Chairman; an
Advisory Director of Austin Trust Company; and former Chairman of the New Jersey
State Revenue Forecasting Advisory Commission. He is a former Director of the American
Republic Life Insurance Co. of N.Y., the Henry H. Kessler Foundation, Inc., Aim Packaging
and Palm Harbor Homes; a former Chairman and Trustee of the New Jersey Shakespeare
Festival; a former director of National Life Insurance Co. (Vermont); a former Trustee
of Bates College; and a former Trustee and the Treasurer of the General Theological
Seminary (Episcopal). Dr. Shilling was a member of the National Commission on Jobs
and Small Business. He also was an informal economic advisor to former President
George H. W. Bush and an Executive-in-Residence at the Amos Tuck School of Business
Administration, Dartmouth College. He has testified before various Congressional
committees, including the Joint Economic Committee and the House Committee on Banking.
He is also an avid beekeeper.
Photo by Emile Wamsteker
Dr. Shilling is the President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc.
He received his bachelor’s degree in physics, magna cum laude, from Amherst College,
where he was also elected to Phi Beta Kappa and Sigma Xi. Earlier, as a high school
senior, he ranked 12th in the nation in the Westinghouse Science Talent Search. Dr.
Shilling earned his master’s degree and doctorate in economics at Stanford University.